the 10+1…
.
the +1…
consensus almost always gets at least 18 winners right and this year was no exception; it got 19 correct categories only missing on ACTRESS, CINEMATOGRAPHY, FILM EDITING, VISUAL EFFECTS and DOCUMENTARY.
on a side note: awards season fatigue drove me crazy and i got the lowest score since my childhood, 12 out of 24 - some of my friends took it as evidence that this world is in fact coming to an end.
the topten
MERYL STREEP won her third OSCAR and i was not ready to see it happen yet … she now joins INGRID BERGMAN and JACK NICHOLSON in the three acting wins club.
HUGO was every one’s pick for the COULD WIN in CINEMATOGRAPHY and VISUAL EFFECTS, so it was not as shocking as other unexpected wins.
GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO was more loved than liked and while many were shocked to see it take FILM EDITING, it most have been OSCAR’s biggest surprise.
UNDEFEATED won the DOCUMENTARY FEATURE award and while many predicted PARADISE LOST 3, it also must have been a very tight vote.
the SHORTS were easy to predict this year which is never the case - and what is best : politics did not matter in the foreign language picture race.
the ARTIST and HUGO tied for the most wins with five awards each, this is the second year in a row that the best picture winner is not the most awarded film.
the IRON LADY is a two time ACADEMY AWARD winner which only shows you how great is HARVEY WEINSTEIN at his job.
the ceremony was a mess, an open call for anyone willing to do anything they thought my work even telecast MVP from other years fell flat [that’s you TINA FEY].
BILLY CRYSTAL did a good job hosting; his opening sketch and opening musical number were very good but the directing of the ceremony sank then - worst reaction shows ever.
EMMA STONE [who was one of the very few, and by very few i mean her and the BRIDESMAIDS, first time presenters] was the only good thing out of the entire ceremony.

![84TH ACADEMY AWARDS
predicting the winner for…
best P I C T U R E
.
W I L L win
the ARTIST
what this film has for? it is a silent movie that seems to be pleasing absolutely everyone, both the critics and the public really liked it - there is no real competition.
what this film has against? it is silent, it is french, it is black and white, it has no recognizable faces and it is a comedy.
C O U L D win
HUGO
it also is a tribute to the beginnings of cinema but in this case made by one of AMERICA’s best living directors, it is in 3D therefore a project who did it the complete opposite way.
S H O U L D win
the TREE OF LIFE
it is a film like no other, this or any other year, and outstanding accomplishment in terms of form and substance, it is the undeniable masterpiece that will survive the pass of time.
W O U L D win [if i had the vote]
1. the TREE OF LIFE
[aka my rankings]
2. HUGO
3. MONEYBALL
4. WAR HORSE
5. the HELP
6. the ARTIST
7. the DESCENDANTS
8. MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
9. EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE](http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lzwseacxy91qb7iobo1_500.jpg)
![84TH ACADEMY AWARDS
predicting the winner for…
achievement in D I R E C T I N G
.
W I L L win
MICHEL HAZANAVICIUS - the ARTIST
what this film has for? it has the WEINSTEINs behind; the movie relies very much on the directing and it is a job well done.
what this film has against? he is the outsider, a foreign director and not the household name ALLEN and SCORSESE are or the critical darlings MALICK and PAYNE are.
C O U L D win
MARTIN SCORSESE - HUGO
he is who he is but he just won so they might think it is too soon to give him another award but we most remember SPIELBERG won in 1998 without being the frontrunner.
S H O U L D win
TERRENCE MALICK - the TREE OF LIFE
he definitely did the most directing but no one can deny that his work on this film is outstanding, it was an ambitious project that he manage very well.
W O U L D win [if i had the vote]
1. TERRENCE MALICK - the TREE OF LIFE
[aka my rankings]
2. MARTIN SCORSESE - HUGO
3. MICHEL HAZANAVICIUS - the ARTIST
4. ALEXANDER PAYNE - the DESCENDANTS
5. WOODY ALLEN - MIDNIGHT IN PARIS](http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lzwsd2biHr1qb7iobo1_500.jpg)
![84TH ACADEMY AWARDS
predicting the winner for…
achievement in W R I T I N G [ADAPTED]
.
W I L L win
MONEYBALL
what this film has for? they do like this film very much and it shows across the board with its six nominations, it might hit somewhere.
what this film has against? the director is still not the recognizable face or name his main competition is and although he is not the nominee in this category, they like their auteurs better.
C O U L D win
the DESCENDANTS
you might think i’m crazy or i might have lost it already but i don’t see lighting striking twice, and seeing ALEXANDER PAYNE winning again after SIDEWAYS is hard to believe.
S H O U L D win
HUGO
i cannot believe everyone already dismissed this screenplay when in my view is the very best in the bunch, but somehow everyone forgot that sometimes winning here is like winning runner-up.
W O U L D win [if i had the vote]
1. HUGO
[aka my rankings]
2. MONEYBALL
3. the DESCENDANTS
4. the IDES OF MARCH
5. TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY](http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lzvgxpj4vR1qb7iobo1_500.jpg)
![84TH ACADEMY AWARDS
predicting the winner for…
achievement in W R I T I N G [ORIGINAL]
.
W I L L win
the ARTIST
what this film has for? it is the most likely winner of picture and director and the last film to win the big prize with scoring here as well was MILLION DOLLAR BABY.
what this film has against? it is a silent movie and members at large think good dialogue means good writing.
C O U L D win
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
this is actually the frontrunner but just like MERYL STREEP [in acting] and JOHN WILLIAMS [in scoring] they lose way more often that they win because people think they can reward them sooner or later.
S H O U L D win
a SEPARATION
it is one of the best written pictures ever, it is simple and very straightforward, but it is a puzzle without any leftovers.
W O U L D win [if i had the vote]
1. a SEPARATION
[aka my rankings]
2. BRIDESMAIDS
3. MARGIN CALL
4. the ARTIST
5. MIDNIGHT IN PARIS](http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lzvgwq7fW01qb7iobo1_500.jpg)
![84TH ACADEMY AWARDS
predicting the winner for…
performance by an ACTOR in a LEADING role
.
W I L L win
JEAN DUJARDIN - the ARTIST
what the performance has for? it is very physical but even more expressive, he won the actor award back at CANNES and he has charm the american press enough to convince them that he is worthy.
what the performance has against? it is a silent performance, he is a foreign actor and really unknown, he has very strong competition.
C O U L D win
GEORGE CLOONEY - the DESCENDANTS
it is one of his best performances and there is no doubt the academy [and AMERICA] loves him but he lost all the steam he had in the last stage of the race.
BRAD PITT - MONEYBALL
he is more than overdue and he is campaigning very hard to win, this category is still tied so a winner and he just had the best year in his career.
GARY OLDMAN - TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
i know they are a lot of coulds but this race is so tight, we know actors don’t love him as much [no previous nominations] but the academy at large might.
S H O U L D win
GARY OLDMAN - TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
he delivers one of the best and most memorable performances of his career, he might be subtle but you just have to pay attention to his look and his eyes.
W O U L D win [if i had the vote]
1. BRAD PITT - MONEYBALL
[aka my rankings]
2. GARY OLDMAN - TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
3. JEAN DUJARDIN - the ARTIST
4. GEORGE CLOONEY - the DESCENDANTS
5. DEMIAN BICHIR - a BETTER LIFE](http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lzt5zn1IiT1qb7iobo1_500.jpg)
![84TH ACADEMY AWARDS
predicting the winner for…
performance by an ACTRESS in a LEADING role
.
W I L L win
VIOLA DAVIS - the HELP
what the performance has for? she was back in 2008 that actress who stole a scene from MERYL STREEP, that same actress STREEP ask HOLLYWOOD to give juicier roles to, and she raises the movie to a whole new level while delivering a subtle yet very powerful performance, the SAG awards standing ovation only shows how talented her peers think she is.
what the performance has against? no one argues that the HELP is well acted but many think the movie might be overrated; also, STREEP is strong competition.
C O U L D win
MERYL STREEP - the IRON LADY
the movie sucks but STREEP is, as always, amazing specially in every scene where she is old and demented - can she win her third OSCAR?
S H O U L D win
VIOLA DAVIS - the HELP
W O U L D win [if i had the vote]
1. GLENN CLOSE - ALBERT NOBBS
[aka my rankings]
2. VIOLA DAVIS - the HELP
3. ROONEY MARA - the GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
4. MERYL STREEP - the IRON LADY
i have not yet seen MY WEEK WITH MARILYN - therefore i abstain to place MICHELLE WILLIAMS in my rankings.
UPDATE: i finally watched MY WEEK WITH MARILYN and therefore i can place MICHELLE WILLIAMS now - she ranks second.](http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lzt5ydHq6A1qb7iobo1_500.jpg)
![84TH ACADEMY AWARDS
predicting the winner for…
performance by an ACTOR in a SUPPORTING role
.
W I L L win
CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER - BEGINNERS
what the performance has for? it is an outstanding performance that shows an extraordinary range, it never hurts that many believe the actor is overdue and has had an iconic career.
what the performance has against? competition in the form of another actor who also is as iconic and has had an amazing career.
C O U L D win
MAX VON SYDOW - EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE
it was not the surprise many believe but it can be the upset many are predicting, he is without any doubt one of the most respected actors in world cinema.
S H O U L D win
CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER - BEGINNERS
W O U L D win [if i had the vote]
1. CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER - BEGINNERS
[aka my rankings]
2. MAX VON SYDOW - EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE
3. NICK NOLTE - WARRIOR
4. JONAH HILL - MONEYBALL
i have not yet seen MY WEEK WITH MARILYN - therefore i abstain to place KENNETH BRANAGH in my rankings.
UPDATE: i finally watched MY WEEK WITH MARILYN and therefore i can place KENNETH BRANAGH now - he ranks fourth.](http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lzt5wzZXYz1qb7iobo1_500.jpg)
![84TH ACADEMY AWARDS
predicting the winner for…
performance by an ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING role
.
W I L L win
OCTAVIA SPENCER - the HELP
what the performance has for? it is an energetic performance, that is funny enough to entertain but that shows some vulnerability as well.
what the performance has against? it is not as serious as other, it can potentially split the vote with JESSICA CHASTAIN, who is also better.
C O U L D win
JESSICA CHASTAIN - the HELP
we know actors love this film, we also know they deeply respect this actress who had an amazing breakthrough year; plus, she is very good in it as well.
S H O U L D win
JESSICA CHASTAIN - the HELP
she won my supporting performance of this year award, the reason: she is amazing specially when you consider how little screen time she gets.
W O U L D win [if i had the vote]
1. JESSICA CHASTAIN - the HELP
[aka my rankings]
2. JANET MCTEER - ALBERT NOBBS
3. MELISSA MCCARTHY - BRIDESMAIDS
4. OCTAVIA SPENCER - the HELP
5. BERENICE BEJO - the ARTIST](http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lzt5vloJ2A1qb7iobo1_500.jpg)
![84TH ACADEMY AWARDS
predicting the winner for…
best F O R E I G N picture
.
W I L L win
IN DARKNESS from POLAND
what this film has for? it is an HOLOCAUST drama [and we know how much they loved them] by a director previously nominated in the category; we know how that worked out for SUSANNE BIER y JUAN JOSÉ CAMPANELLA.
what this film has against? it is not the perceived frontrunner and has not been named a masterpiece like A SEPARATION has.
C O U L D win
a SEPARATION from IRAN
it is a masterpiece [perhaps] but people do not remember that this award goes to the country and not the director; will the ACADEMY give IRAN the award after the incident involving JAFAR PANAHI?
S H O U L D win
a SEPARATION
W O U L D win [if i had the vote]
1. a SEPARATION
[aka my rankings]
i have not yet seen the other films nominated](http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lzpqnc7eql1qb7iobo1_500.jpg)
![84TH ACADEMY AWARDS
predicting the winner for…
best A N I M A T E D picture
.
W I L L win
RANGO
what this film has for? one year ago it became the movie to beat and after a long year not one movie came even close.
C O U L D win
PUSS IN BOOTS
this film was the only one to survive all the way to the end proving that the perceived support was not imaginary.
S H O U L D win
CHICO & RITA
many called this nomination so once i watched i understood why, it is an epic love story that has that feel classics have, plus it is beautifully animated.
W O U L D win [if i had the vote]
1. CHICO & RITA
[aka my rankings]
2. RANGO
3. KUNG FU PANDA 2
4. PUSS IN BOOTS
5. a CAT IN PARIS](http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lzpqljIcAD1qb7iobo1_500.jpg)
![84TH ACADEMY AWARDS
predicting the winner for…
achievement in A R T - D I R E C T I O N
.
W I L L win
HUGO
what this film has for? they love DANTE FERRETI and it is a film with top notch production values, it is a little grim but SWEENEY TODD was as well.
what this film has against? it is not as elegant or as fancy but neither are the other nominees, also none are very colorful.
C O U L D win
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2
this giant saga has been nominated many times here already and this is their last chance to give them the prize.
S H O U L D win
HUGO
W O U L D win [if i had the vote]
1. HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2
[aka my rankings]
2. the ARTIST
3. HUGO
4. WAR HORSE
5. MIDNIGHT IN PARIS](http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lzne5peHy31qb7iobo1_500.jpg)
![84TH ACADEMY AWARDS
predicting the winner for…
achievement in C I N E M A T O G R A P H Y
.
W I L L win
the TREE OF LIFE
what this film has for? it is an outstanding achievement in terms of cinematography, it is both beautiful and breathtaking, no one can argue with its merit.
what this film has against? it is only one of three nominations and the last time a film won here without any other tech nominations was in 1970 - can this be the exception?
C O U L D win
HUGO
the AVIATOR won four technical awards back in 2004 and many are predicting that this film will win the same four plus both sounds - i do not see this film repeating that success but one cannot argue that this category is often spoiled by an unexpected underdog.
S H O U L D win
the TREE OF LIFE
W O U L D win [if i had the vote]
1. the TREE OF LIFE
[aka my rankings]
2. the ARTIST
3. WAR HORSE
4. HUGO
5. the GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO](http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lzne39oX8H1qb7iobo1_500.jpg)