84TH ACADEMY AWARDS
predicting the nominees for…
best P I C T U R E
a rare year, a rare race… a battle between celebrated and iconic directors from the past, established yet not legendary directors and some very new faces.
[in order of likelihood]
D E F I N I T E L Y
1. WAR HORSE [d. steven SPIELBERG]
to be quite honest i almost feel pressured to place this film in this spot but the movie based on an already awarded play should be our best bet for at least a nomination.
the picture seems to be the kind of thing that gets support across the board and one could be sure the director has not only fans but friends voting for his latest effort.
2. MONEYBALL [d. bennett MILLER]
3. the DESCENDANTS [d. alexander PAYNE]
both established directors that have previously directed nominated pictures in this category [and in a small field of five].
in my opinion this year might see the battle of GEORGE CLOONEY VS BRAD PITT, and both have enough star power to take their films to at least a nomination.
L I K E L Y
4. the ARTIST [d. michael HAZANAVICIUS]
5. the HELP [d. tate TAYLOR]
both sleeper hits [in different ways although], the former became an instant favorite and frontrunner the minute it was announced as a last minute add to the competition lineup, the latter became a surprisingly box office success, both play great with audiences and critics even when both were directed by unknown directors.
6. EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE [d. stephen DALDRY]
he seems to be guaranteed for a directing nomination every time, all his pictures [but one] have been nominated in this category before.
based on an acclaimed and very successful novel this film seems set to follow the director filmography trend - however, the movie is still unseen and surely the man can fail at least once.
7. the IDES OF MARCH [d. george CLOONEY]
many say “been there, done that” [therefore the movie is far from fresh] but the academy usually does not care to much about that.
they love CLOONEY and the star-studded cast and crew, his efforts have been nominated before and this is a category that can stretch as far as ten spots.
P O S S I B L Y
8. MIDNIGHT IN PARIS [d. woody ALLEN]
9. the TREE OF LIFE [d. terrence MALICK]
it is very strange that the buzz died [pretty much] for this pair; it is even stranger that pundits are giving the edge to the ARTIST and the HELP when their paths are so similar.
this two movies were praised by critics [since they opened in CANNES] and became box office hits no one saw coming; what is more puzzling is the fact that they were directed by legends and no one still seems sure of their fates - how can ALLEN and MALICK are not safer bets than the films from directors nobody knows or cares for?
10. TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY [d. tomas ALFREDSON]
call it wishful thinking if you want but the director had already a successful picture in his past that gained lots of buzz but ultimately did not translate to awards gold.
can the [so called] british block take this film to a well earned nomination? or will it be seen as something to brainy and cold to become “approved” by the more mainstream academy?
U N L I K E L Y
11. J EDGAR [d. clint EASTWOOD]
the director was on fire ten years ago delivering best picture contenders year after year but suddenly something went wrong and his films became lesser products.
12. the GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO [d. david FINCHER]
they like his more safe and traditional projects [sans ZODIAC], so this very edgy film has many barriers to break and many blocks to overcome.
13. YOUNG ADULT [d. jason REITMAN]
another academy favorite, this film quite honestly should be higher on this list but one cannot fully trust their instincts when the movie has not been seen.
14. HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART II [d. david YATES]
it will not happen but the huge box office numbers, the support some branches have shown in the past plus the huge campaign WARNER will be throwing can translate into a surprising nomination.
15. HUGO [d. martin SCORSESE]
this book is great [or so they told me], the director is another favorite of them that they rarely award - will they nominate this very unconventional choice?