seasondays - el fanatico

84TH ACADEMY AWARDS

predicting the nominees for…

achievement in M U S I C [score]

.

[in order of likelihood]

D E F I N I T E L Y

1-2.

the ARTIST

the GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO

L I K E L Y

3. HUGO

P O S S I B L Y

4. the ADVENTURES OF TINTIN

5. HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2

6. WAR HORSE

U N L I K E L Y

7. TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY

84TH ACADEMY AWARDS

predicting the nominees for…

achievement in C I N E M A T O G R A P H Y

.

[in order of likelihood]

D E F I N I T E L Y

1-3.

the ARTIST

HUGO

the TREE OF LIFE

L I K E L Y

4. WAR HORSE

P O S S I B L Y

5. the GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO

6. HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2

U N L I K E L Y

7. TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY

84TH ACADEMY AWARDS

predicting the nominees for…

achievement in A R T - D I R E C T I O N

.

[in order of likelihood]

D E F I N I T E L Y

1-3.

the ARTIST

HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2

HUGO

L I K E L Y

4. the HELP

P O S S I B L Y

5. TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY

U N L I K E L Y

6. ANONYMOUS

7. WAR HORSE

84TH ACADEMY AWARDS

predicting the nominees for…

achievement in W R I T I N G [ADAPTED]

.

this is the most loud announcing the best film line-up usually and this year it is not that far with the entire pool of potential contenders also running for a picture slot.

[in order of likelihood]

D E F I N I T E L Y

1-4.

nat FAXON / alexander PAYNE / jim RASH - the DESCENDANTS

tate TAYLOR - the HELP

john LOGAN - HUGO

stan CHERVIN / aaron SORKIN / steven ZAILLIAN- MONEYBALL

did i say best film line-up? because they seem all set for picture-writing matching nominations and none seem like they might be going anywhere.

L I K E L Y

5. bridget O’CONNOR / peter STRAUGHAN - TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY

to be quite honest i still don’t see this nomination happening but every blogger seems to be doing so; i do believe that the next two films has a better chance.

P O S S I B L Y

6-7.

steven ZAILLIAN - the GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO

richard CURTIS / lee HALL - WAR HORSE

do you see what i am seeing? two best film somehow strong contenders from higher profile pictures, one adapted from a best seller, the other an acclaimed play.

84TH ACADEMY AWARDS

predicting the nominees for…

best P I C T U R E

.

a rare year, a rare race… everyone is already calling the winner but just like 2000 and 2006 it is still very wide open.

although i’m predicting a top ten, in fact just the top seven are guaranteed a spot, the rest will most likely end up out of it.

[in order of likelihood]

D E F I N I T E L Y

1-4. alphabetical

the ARTIST [d. michael HAZANAVICIUS]

the DESCENDANTS [d. alexander PAYNE]

the HELP [d. tate TAYLOR]

HUGO [d. martin SCORSESE]

more safe they cannot be and the winner will most likely come from this bunch; the ARTIST could/might be in the lead but it still has to overcome the fact that it is foreign picture.

L I K E L Y

5. MIDNIGHT IN PARIS [d. woody ALLEN]

if this year was a five-slot year this film will most likely had made it as well however one should remember only two movies made by WOODY have made this list.

6. MONEYBALL [d. bennett MILLER]

this film has survived only because it is at the middle of the pack, it is not the frontrunner but it is an almost very safe bet.

7. WAR HORSE [d. steven SPIELBERG]

no film will survive the hype after being declared the frontrunner; this film did horribly with the guilds but so did MUNICH who still did manage to land in the best film category.

P O S S I B L Y

8. the TREE OF LIFE [d. terrence MALICK]

it is not the easiest movie to watch but in theory this film only needs 300 votes to make it all the way; i’m betting against it.

9. the GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO [d. david FINCHER]

it was in then out and apparently is back again, the DGA nomination as usual means that this film will most likely end here.

10. BRIDESMAIDS [d. paul FEIG]

it was in [kinda] then out and like that last film might be back again, it is very unlikely but the PGA, SAG & WGA nominated it.

U N L I K E L Y

11. the IDES OF MARCH [d. george CLOONEY]

12. TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY [d. tomas ALFREDSON]

both are very cold movies and therefore it is not as easy for them to be praised, both were mostly ignored by both critics and the guilds but still winning some traction.

84TH ACADEMY AWARDS

predicting the nominees for…

performance by an ACTOR in a LEADING role

.

this race will be the battle of CLOONEY vs PITT, both veteran actors with some movies this year to show for and a career to back them up.

[in order of likelihood]

D E F I N I T E L Y

1. george CLOONEY - the DESCENDANTS

2. brad PITT - MONEYBALL

they will battle it out this year, both very good actors with long careers, huge HOLLYWOOD stars still working and rumor has it that they both give their best performance ever.

L I K E L Y

3. jean DUJARDIN - the ARTIST

winner of an acting prize at CANNES, last year BARDEM pulled the exact same feat - he is not the star BARDEM is [nor a previous OSCAR winner] and he does not speak english [onscreen or off].

still he is front and center in that film, the WEINSTEINs are behind the movie and the category lacks some strong contenders.

P O S S I B L Y

4. gary OLDMAN - TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY

the man is a legend and lately this category has become a career award more than anything - he lacks the star appeal that all his competitors have.

5. leonardo DICAPRIO - J EDGAR

he is a star, a great actor but people might be getting bored; still CLINT EASTWOOD has proven before that he can get at least the actors nominated even if the film fails to do so.

U N L I K E L Y

6. ryan GOSLING - the IDES OF MARCH

7. michael FASSBENDER - SHAME

both have such an amazing year it is almost painful to not write them as sure bets, both are very talented and stars in the making, therefore they might have to wait for their chance to happen.

8. michael SHANNON - TAKE SHELTER

rumor has it that his performance is better than any other this year but he is still pretty much unknown [and OSCAR does like some star appeal]; however he has been surprisingly nominated before.

9. woody HARRELSON - RAMPART

his previous collaboration with MOVERMAN earned him a nomination but unlike that time he might be coming a little too late to the race.

10. joseph GORDON LEVITT - 50/50

he has been ignored year after year for outstanding performances, many thought he was not popular enough but now that he is more of a household name can he manage to get finally nominated?

84TH ACADEMY AWARDS

predicting the nominees for…

best P I C T U R E

.

a rare year, a rare race… a battle between celebrated and iconic directors from the past, established yet not legendary directors and some very new faces.

[in order of likelihood]

D E F I N I T E L Y

1. WAR HORSE [d. steven SPIELBERG]

to be quite honest i almost feel pressured to place this film in this spot but the movie based on an already awarded play should be our best bet for at least a nomination.

the picture seems to be the kind of thing that gets support across the board and one could be sure the director has not only fans but friends voting for his latest effort.

2. MONEYBALL [d. bennett MILLER]

3. the DESCENDANTS [d. alexander PAYNE]

both established directors that have previously directed nominated pictures in this category [and in a small field of five].

in my opinion this year might see the battle of GEORGE CLOONEY VS BRAD PITT, and both have enough star power to take their films to at least a nomination.

L I K E L Y

4. the ARTIST [d. michael HAZANAVICIUS]

5. the HELP [d. tate TAYLOR]

both sleeper hits [in different ways although], the former became an instant favorite and frontrunner the minute it was announced as a last minute add to the competition lineup, the latter became a surprisingly box office success, both play great with audiences and critics even when both were directed by unknown directors.

6. EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE [d. stephen DALDRY]

he seems to be guaranteed for a directing nomination every time, all his pictures [but one] have been nominated in this category before.

based on an acclaimed and very successful novel this film seems set to follow the director filmography trend - however, the movie is still unseen and surely the man can fail at least once.

7. the IDES OF MARCH [d. george CLOONEY]

many say “been there, done that” [therefore the movie is far from fresh] but the academy usually does not care to much about that.

they love CLOONEY and the star-studded cast and crew, his efforts have been nominated before and this is a category that can stretch as far as ten spots.

P O S S I B L Y

8. MIDNIGHT IN PARIS [d. woody ALLEN]

9. the TREE OF LIFE [d. terrence MALICK]

it is very strange that the buzz died [pretty much] for this pair; it is even stranger that pundits are giving the edge to the ARTIST and the HELP when their paths are so similar.

this two movies were praised by critics [since they opened in CANNES] and became box office hits no one saw coming; what is more puzzling is the fact that they were directed by legends and no one still seems sure of their fates - how can ALLEN and MALICK are not safer bets than the films from directors nobody knows or cares for?

10. TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY [d. tomas ALFREDSON]

call it wishful thinking if you want but the director had already a successful picture in his past that gained lots of buzz but ultimately did not translate to awards gold.

can the [so called] british block take this film to a well earned nomination? or will it be seen as something to brainy and cold to become “approved” by the more mainstream academy?

U N L I K E L Y

11. J EDGAR [d. clint EASTWOOD]

the director was on fire ten years ago delivering best picture contenders year after year but suddenly something went wrong and his films became lesser products.

12. the GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO [d. david FINCHER]

they like his more safe and traditional projects [sans ZODIAC], so this very edgy film has many barriers to break and many blocks to overcome.

13. YOUNG ADULT [d. jason REITMAN]

another academy favorite, this film quite honestly should be higher on this list but one cannot fully trust their instincts when the movie has not been seen.

14. HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART II [d. david YATES]

it will not happen but the huge box office numbers, the support some branches have shown in the past plus the huge campaign WARNER will be throwing can translate into a surprising nomination.

15. HUGO [d. martin SCORSESE]

this book is great [or so they told me], the director is another favorite of them that they rarely award - will they nominate this very unconventional choice?